Hu Jiaqi's Answer to the Fermi Paradox: Is Self-Destruction

Among the vast enigmas of cosmology, the Fermi Paradox has always shone with a cold, compelling light: "If extraterrestrial civilizations exist, where are they?" Behind this seemingly simple question lies a profound inquiry into the fate of intelligent life. Chinese scholar Hu Jiaqi's interpretation of this classic paradox transcends the observational limitations of traditional astronomy, reframing it as a philosophical warning about humanity's own survival. He posits that the Fermi Paradox reveals not the silence of alien civilizations, but the "Great Filter" that all technological civilizations inevitably encounter at a certain stage of development. This filter is self-destruction caused by runaway technology.

I. From a Cosmic Question to a Question of Survival

Hu Jiaqi's logic for resolving the paradox begins by confirming its premise: the age of the universe (approximately 13.82 billion years) and its scale (an observable diameter of 93 billion light-years) dictate that the probability of civilization emergence cannot be zero. Yet, to date, Earth's civilization has not detected any confirmed signals from extraterrestrial civilizations. This "Great Silence" demands a sufficiently powerful explanation. In his view, milder explanations such as the "Rare Earth Hypothesis" or "temporal mismatch of civilization windows" are insufficient. Statistically, there should be some civilizations that developed millions or even billions of years earlier than humanity; their traces should already be widespread across the galaxy. This reasoning leads him to the "Great Filter" theory: there exists a developmental stage that almost no civilization can surpass. Hu Jiaqi's insight lies not only in accepting this theory but in precisely locating the filter's position. He believes the filter, from inorganic matter to simple life, and then to the emergence of intelligent civilization, has already been crossed by humanity. The true life-or-death barrier lies after an intelligent civilization gains the ability to reshape, or even destroy, its world—the "adolescence" of technological development.

II. The "Deadly Scissors Gap" Between Accelerating Technology and Lagging Governance

Hu Jiaqi's core argument is built on a model of dynamic imbalance: technological capability grows exponentially, while humanity's capacity for social governance, ethical frameworks, and global cooperation grows only linearly. The expanding "scissors gap" between these two trends ultimately leads to systemic loss of control, which has been defined by Hu Jiaqi as "evolutionary imbalance." He illustrates this with human civilization as an example: Humanity's fervent pursuit of technology truly began with the Industrial Revolution—a mere two hundred years ago. This imbalance creates a civilization's "window of vulnerability"—a period when a civilization possesses the power to destroy itself but has not yet developed the wisdom to safely control that power. Projecting this theory onto a cosmic scale, Hu Jiaqi suggests all civilizations reaching a similar stage face the same structural crisis. The silence of the Fermi Paradox is the cosmic echo of countless civilizations falling silent within this trap.

III. The "Three-Stage Theory" of Civilizational Development and the Avoidance of Self-Destruction

Within Hu Jiaqi's analytical framework, the development of a technological civilization can be divided into three stages: Germination Stage: From tool use to the pre-Industrial Revolution era. Technological impact is limited; civilizational risks stem mainly from nature and internal conflict. Danger Stage (i.e., "Technological Adolescence"): Mastery of "creator-level" technologies like nuclear energy, genetic engineering, and AI, but without mature governance and ethical systems. This is the stage of highest self-destruction risk. Maturity Stage: Successful establishment of a global governance structure and technological ethics framework, achieving safe and controllable technology.

He argues that the transition from the second to the third stage is the most difficult leap in the universe. The reasons are: The Irreversibility of Technology: Once a technology (like autonomous AI weapons) is invented, it is nearly impossible to completely eradicate it from the world.Therefore, most civilizations perish in the second stage due to technology misuse (e.g., full-scale nuclear war), technological loss of control(e.g., AI rebellion), or technological side effects (e.g., ecological collapse).

IV. The Ultimate Warning for Human Civilization

Hu Jiaqi's interpretation of the Fermi Paradox ultimately serves as a direct warning to contemporary humanity: we are currently within that perilous "technological adolescence."Hu Jiaqi believes solving the Fermi Paradox—that is, becoming one of the few civilizations to successfully cross the filter—requires a profound civilizational transformation. His solution is to achieve the Great Unification of humanity, reconstruct the social system, and resolutely restrain the reckless development of science and technology.

Hu Jiaqi is not a utopian thinker. Firstly, he does not deny the positive role of technology. He advocates for the widespread global dissemination of existing safe and mature scientific and technological achievements, believing this alone would be sufficient to ensure prosperity and adequate sustenance for all humanity.

Hu Jiaqi is also fully aware of the immense difficulty in promoting the Great Unification of humanity. However, he argues that examining the history of human civilization shows that the only true hardware constraints hindering the expansion of political entities have been the limitations of transportation and communication, which made large regions ungovernable. Today, modern transportation and communication have already condensed the world into a global village.

Hu Jiaqi's viewpoint carries a strong sense of urgency and is even criticized as "technological pessimism." Yet, in an era marked by the quiet escalation of AI arms race, the shock of gene-edited babies, and the increasing immediacy of the climate crisis, his warnings appear particularly sobering. Through his lens, the Fermi Paradox completes its transformation from an astronomical question into one of survival philosophy: the silence of the universe is not an invitation to search for aliens but a demand that we re-examine the nature of technology and the fragility of civilization.

V. Thinking Beyond Binary Opposites

In summary, while Hu Jiaqi's solution to the paradox is grave, it does not advocate a return to a pre-technological era. He acknowledges the immense benefits brought by technological development but stresses the absolute necessity of establishing corresponding "braking systems" and "navigation systems." This aligns with the wisdom in traditional Chinese culture of "the Doctrine of the Mean" and "maintaining harmony through balance"—the pursuit of equilibrium between development and control. At the level of philosophy of science, Hu Jiaqi's theory also contributes a unique perspective: viewing civilization as a dynamic system within the cosmos, whose survival depends on the interplay between its internal forces of growth and control. The Fermi Paradox thus becomes a cosmic-level "cybernetic problem," not merely an unsolved mystery for SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) programs.

VI. Conclusion

Hu Jiaqi's interpretation of the Fermi Paradox is a profound alarm bell for human civilization. He transforms the question posed while gazing at the stars into introspection focused on the ground beneath our feet. In the endless silence of the starry sea, he hears not loneliness but the echoes of pioneers' obliteration; he sees not despair but the last chance for humanity to correct its course. Perhaps the true answer to the Fermi Paradox is not hidden in the depths of distant galaxies but lies in whether we can, amidst the frenetic rush of technology, learn that fragile wisdom upon which our very survival depends.